CYRUS: GOD’S ANOINTED SHEPHERD

CYRUS: GOD'S ANOINTED SHEPHERD

Nearly 150 years before Cyrus was born, the prophet Isaiah foretold his birth, his name, and the tasks that the Creator God had predetermined for him to accomplish. The Bible records that certain people are foreordained to be born and carry out specific tasks for God during their lifetime and a few of these individuals are even named before their birth. Cyrus the Great was one of these individuals whom God had predestined to play a pivotal roll in his awesome plan for humanity.

King Cyrus was an extremely important person, because God destroyed the Babylonian empire through him, and brought a close to a seventy-year punishment of the Jews that God imposed on them for their rebellion against him. Also through King Cyrus, God set into motion his seventy-week prophecy that fixed the year for the Messiah's death and resurrection, and reveals the sequence of events and dates for the Messiah's return which will bring to an end human rule of the earth, and usher in the government of God to rule over the entire earth.

Although historians have slightly differing interpretations and views of the historical record concerning the dates of Cyrus' birth and death and his various accomplishments, there is ample historical documentation that Cyrus the Great was indeed a real person whose name is mentioned over 22 times in the Bible and whose tomb in Iran can be visited today.

Cyrus' Protection

In Volume 1 of his historical works, The Greek historian Herodotus records that, before Cyrus' birth, King Astyages dreamed that out of his daughter Mandane flowed a stream of water that filled his capital and flooded all of Asia. When he asked the interpreters of dreams what this meant, they told him that his pregnant daughter would have a son who would overthrow his rule.

In order to stop this perceived threat to his rule, King Astyages sent for his trusted servant Harpagus and told him to kill and bury his daughter's child as soon as it was born; however, Harpagus could not bring himself to kill the newborn child and instead gave him to a shepherd and his wife to kill. But, they were also unwilling to kill the child and instead reared Cyrus as their own.

Harpagus' reluctance to kill the infant Cyrus and the emotional attachment to the newborn child by the married couple shows the Creator God's hand at work to fulfill his plan for Cyrus. See Isa.45:10-13.

The Bible is full of accounts of individuals in whom God had a special interest being protected and guided through their life; this was the case with Cyrus. God had foreordained this man to be his anointed servant (Isa.45:1) and protected and guided the events of his life in order for him to fulfill his destiny.

Cyrus the Man

Cyrus was the grandson of Astyages, King of the Medes. He was born in the province of Persis, in southwest Iran in 590 BC and died in battle in 530 B.C.. He founded the Archaemenian dynasty and the Persian Empire. He overthrew three great empires: the Medes, Lydians, and Babylonians. He also united most of the ancient Middle East into a single state stretching from India to the Mediterranean Sea, which meant that he possessed the largest empire in the world at that time.

Cyrus was a leader of tremendous military ability and high moral and ethical values; he was not inclined to extreme brutality, cruelty, and the perpetual conquest for new territories as were many other conquerors. Cyrus was also extremely tolerant of the customs and the religions of the nations he conquered.

The Greeks considered the Persian Empire to be the greatest threat to their own independence, but they highly regarded Cyrus because of his character and ethical rule.

The Cyrus Cylinder

One important source for the history of Cyrus is the so-called Cyrus cylinder discovered in 1879 by Hormonz Rassam during excavations at Babylon. Although the cylinder is not totally intact and there is some controversy concerning the exact translation of the cuneiform script, it is clear that this ancient document substantiates the biblical record concerning the destruction of the Babylonian empire and the Jews' return to Palestine from their Babylonian captivity.

The following is a partial translation of cuneiform script on the Cyrus cylinder which is dated 538-529 B.C. and housed in the British Museum:

"I am Cyrus, king of the world, great king, mighty king, king of Babylon, king of the land of Sumer and Akkad, king of the four quarters, son of Cambyses, great king, king of Anshan, grandson of Cyrus, great king, king of Anshan, descendant of Teispes, great king, king of Anshan, progeny of an unending royal line, whose rule Bel and Nabu cherish, whose kingship they desire for their hearts' pleasures.'

"When I, well-disposed, entered Babylon, I established the seat of government in the royal palace amidst jubilation and rejoicing. Marduk, the great God, caused the big-hearted inhabitants of Babylon to love me. I sought daily to worship him. My numerous troops moved about undisturbed in the midst of Babylon.'

"I did not allow any to terrorize the land of Sumer and Akkad. I kept in view the needs of Babylon and all its sanctuaries to promote their well-being. The citizens of Babylon. . .I lifted their unbecoming yoke. Their dilapidated dwellings I restored. I put an end to their misfortunes.'

"At my deeds Marduk, the great Lord, rejoiced, and to me, Cyrus, the king who worshiped, and to Cambyses, my son, the offspring of my loins, and to all my troops, he graciously gave his blessing, and in good spirit is before him we glorified exceedingly his high divinity.

"All the kings who sat in the throne rooms, throughout the four quarters, from the Upper to the Lower Sea, those who dwelt in. . .all the kings of the West Country who dwelt in tents, brought me their heavy tribute and kissed my feet in Babylon. From. . .to the cities of Ashur and Susa, Agade, Eshnuna, the cities of Zamban, Meurnu, Der, as far as the region of the land of Gutium, the holy cities beyond the Tigris whose sanctuaries had been in ruins over a long period, the Gods whose abode is in the midst of them. I returned to the places and housed them in lasting abodes.

"I gathered together all their inhabitants and restored to them their dwellings. The Gods of Sumer and Akkad whom Nabonidus had, to the anger of the Lord of the Gods, brought into Babylon, I at the bidding of Marduk, the great Lord made to dwell in peace in their habitations, delightful abodes.

"May all the gods whom I have placed within their sanctuaries address a daily prayer in my favor before Bel and Nabu, that my days may be long."

The above text shows that King Cyrus did indeed allow many of the nations he conquered to not only practice their various religions. Moreover, he rebuilt their temples, restored their articles of worship, and allowed several ethnic groups (including the Jews) who were captive in Babylon to return to their homeland.

Cyrus Invades Babylon

The follow excerpt from the cylinder text tells about the ease with which Cyrus' army entered the city of Babylon. This also substantiates Isaiah's prophecy and the events in the Book of Daniel:

"His widespread troops-their number, like that of the water of a river, which could not be counted, strolled along, their weapons packed away. Without any battle, he made him enter his city Babylon, sparing Babylon any damage. He delivered into my hands Nabonidus, the king who did not worship him."

The Book of Daniel only reveals that the same night in which the king of Babylon was having a great feast, the city was invaded and the king was killed. The biblical account seems to support the text on the Cyrus cylinder; in that, the invasion of Babylon was swift and that there was little or no resistance from its defenders.

In Volume 1 of his historical works, The Greek historian Herodotus records the following about the invasion of Babylon by King Cyrus:

"On the top, along the edges of the wall, they constructed buildings of a single chamber facing one to another, leaving between them room for a four-horse chariot to turn. In the circuit of the wall are a hundred gates, all of brass, with bronze lintels and side-posts. . .The city is divided into two portions by the river, which runs through the midst of it. This river is the Euphrates, a broad, deep, swift stream, which rises in Armenia, and empties itself into the Erythraean Sea.

"At the rivers end of these cross streets are low gates in the fence that skirts the stream, which are, like the great gates in the outer wall, all of brass, and open towards the water. . .Cyrus on his way to Babylon came to the banks of the Gyndes, a stream which, rising in the Matienian mountains, runs through the country of the Dardanians, and empties itself into the river Tigris. The Tigris, after receiving the Gyndes, flows on by the city of Opis, and discharges its waters into the Erythraean sea.

"When Cyrus reached this stream, which could only be passed in boats, one of the sacred white horses accompanying his march, full of spirit and high mettle, walked into the water, and tried to cross by himself; but the current seized him, swept him along with it, and drowned him in its depths. Cyrus, became enraged at the river, and threatened to break its strength so that in the future even women should cross it easily without wetting their knees.

"Accordingly he put off for a time his attack on Babylon, and, dividing his army into two parts, he marked out by ropes one hundred and eighty trenches on each side of the Gyndes, leading off from it in all directions, and making his army dig, some on one side of the river, some on the other, he accomplished his threat by the aid of a great a number of hands, but not without losing the whole summer season. Having defeated the river Gyndes by dispersing it through three hundred and sixty channels, Cyrus, with Spring approaching, marched forward against Babylon. The Babylonians, encamped without their walls, awaited his coming.

"A battle was fought at a short distance from the city, in which the Babylonians were defeated by the Persian king, whereupon they withdrew within their defenses. Here they shut themselves and made fun of his siege, having laid in a store of provisions for many years in preparation against this attack; for when they saw Cyrus conquering nation after nation, they were convinced that he would never stop, and that their turn would come at last. Now Cyrus did not know how to proceed, for as time went on he made no progress in conquering the city.

"In his distress either someone made a suggestion to him, or he himself came up with a plan, which he proceeded to follow. He placed a portion of his army at the point where the river enters the city, and another body at the back of the place where it comes out, with orders to march into the town by the bed of the stream, as soon as the water became shallow enough: he and his army then withdrew, and went to the place where Nitocris dug the basin for the river, where he did exactly what he had done in the past: he turned the Euphrates by a canal into the basin, which was then a marsh, on which the river sank to such a low level that the natural bed of the stream became crossable.

"Hereupon the Persians who had been left at Babylon by the riverside, entered the stream, which had now sunk so as to reach about midway up to a man's thigh, and entered into the city.

"Had the Babylonians been aware of what Cyrus was up to, or had they noticed their danger, they would have never allowed the Persians to enter the city, but would have destroyed them; for they would have closed all the street-gates which opened to the river, and mounting upon the walls along both sides of the stream, would have caught the enemy, as it were, in a trap. But, as it was, the Persians came upon them by surprise and took the city.

"Owing to the great size of the place, the inhabitants of the central part of Babylon, long after the outer portions of the town were taken, knew nothing of what had taken place, for they were engaged in a festival of dancing and reveling. Such, then, were the circumstances of the first taking of Babylon." See Daniel chapter 5.

Nearly 150 years before Cyrus' birth, God declared through the prophet Isaiah that a man named Cyrus would be the anointed shepherd of his people and rebuild Jerusalem. At the time of the prophecy of Isaiah, Jerusalem was a prosperous city that would not be destroyed for more than 100 years by the Babylonian king, Nebuchadnezzar.

Isaiah 44:24, 26-28

"This the Lord, your Redeemer, who formed you in the womb: I am the Lord, who makes all things, stretching out the heavens; I alone spread out the earth . . . He confirms the word of his servant and completes the counsel of his messengers. He says to Jerusalem, You will be peopled; and to the cities of Judah, you shall be built; and I will raise up its ruins" (vs.24, 26 Para.).

In verse 24, God reminds national Israel that he is the Creator of all things and their Redeemer. In verse 26 he says that he has the power to carry out the things that are said by his servants and messengers and promises to repopulate Jerusalem and rebuild the cities of Judah.

"He says to the deep, be a waste! And I will dry up your rivers! He says, To Cyrus my shepherd; he will fulfil all my will, even to say to Jerusalem, you shall be built; and to the temple, you shall be set up" (vs.27-28 Para.).

Some feel that the reference to the deep and the drying up of the rivers in verse 27 refers to the method by which the Euphrates River was diverted in order for Cyrus' army to enter the city of Babylon. Although this seems like a plausible explanation given the historical account of the invasion of the city, there may be other interpretations, which are beyond the scope of this study. However, verse 27 is very clear; God names Cyrus as the man who will shepherd his people and carry out his plan to return the Jews to their homeland and rebuild the cities and the temple.

Isaiah 45:1-13

"This says the Lord to his anointed, to Cyrus, whom I have seized by the right, to subdue nations before him. Yes, I will open the loins of kings, to open the two-leaved doors before him, and the gates shall not be shut. I will go before you and make hills level; I will tear apart the bronze doors and cut the iron bars in two. And I will give you the treasures of darkness, even treasures in secret places, that you may know that I am the Lord who calls you by your name, I the God of Israel" (vs.1-3 Para.).

In verses 1-3, we see that Cyrus is called the Lord's anointed (Heb. mashiyach [maw-shee'-akh]). which denotes a person specifically chosen and set apart for a specific task. Notice also that God promised to intervene and help Cyrus conquer many nations (i.e., make hills level).

The opening of the two-leaved doors, the tearing apart of the bronze doors, and the cutting of the iron bars seem to picture God's intervention to open the hundred copper-alloy gates of Babylon to King Cyrus and his army.

Imagine Cyrus' amazement and sober contemplation as he became aware of Isaiah's prophecy and realized that almost 150 years before his birth he had been named and ordained by the God of the Israelites to become a mighty conquering king and perform a task for this God whom he neither knew nor worshiped.

Today, we view Isaiah's prophecy in the dim light of ancient history, which makes it difficult to fully comprehend Cyrus' perspective on the prophecy. Cyrus viewed the prophecy from the perspective of his many victorious battles and how easily he had conquered many nations, including the mighty Babylonian empire and its capital city.

"For Jacob my servant's sake, and for Israel my elect, I have called you by your name. I named you but you do not know me. I am God, and there is no other, there is no God except me, I will clothe you, even though you do not know me, that they may know from sunrise to sunset that there is none except me; I am God and there is no other who creates light and forms darkness; makes peace and creates evil. I God do all these things" (vs.4-7 Para.).

The Creator God states in verse 6 that one of the reasons for this prophecy is so that people will have a continual witness the he is God. The prophecy concerning Cyrus and its fulfillment is a continual witness of the Creator God's power and authority over his creation. See Jn.1:1-3; Eph.3:8-9; Heb.2:10.

"Woe to him that fights with his Maker! A potsherd among the potsherds of the earth! Shall the clay say to him that fashions it, What are you making? Or does the work say, He has no hands? Woe to him that says to his father, What are you fathering? Or to the woman, What are you laboring over? This says the Lord, the Holy One of Israel, and his Maker. Do you ask me the things to come? Do you give me commands to me about my sons, and about the works of my hands? I have made the earth, and created man on it. I stretched out the heavens with my hands; and I have set all of them in order" (vs.9-12 Para.).

Verses 9-12 seems to be a warning to King Cyrus to carefully consider and respect the awesome power of the God who claims to have the ultimate power to create and destroy and recorded the words concerning him and what he was to accomplish almost 150 years before his birth.

"I have raised him [Cyrus] up to be ethical and have made all his ways direct. He shall build my city [Jerusalem], and he will release my captives; not for price, nor reward, says the Lord of hosts" (v.13 Para.).

Here, we see the task that Cyrus was brought into existence to accomplish for the Creator God of Israel. History records that Cyrus did accomplish the task for which he was foreordained.

Cyrus' Proclamation

In 2.Chronicles chapter 36 and in Ezra chapter 1, we are told that King Cyrus was motivated by God to write a decree to allow the Jews to return to Jerusalem to rebuild the temple:

"Now in the first year of Cyrus king of Persia, in order to accomplish the word of the Lord spoken through the mouth of Jeremiah, the Lord stirred up the spirit of Cyrus king the of Persia, that he made a proclamation throughout all his kingdom, and put it also in writing, saying, This says Cyrus king of Persia, The God of heaven has given me all the kingdoms of the earth, and has charged me to build him a house in Jerusalem, which is in Judah. Who is among you of all his people? The Lord his God be with him, and let him go up" (2.Chron.36:22-23 Para.).

"Now in the first year of Cyrus king of Persia, that the word of the Lord by the mouth of Jeremiah might be fulfilled, the Lord stirred up the spirit of Cyrus king of Persia, that he made a proclamation throughout all his kingdom, and put it also in writing, saying, This says Cyrus king of Persia, The Lord God of heaven has given me all the kingdoms of the earth; and he has charged me to build him an house at Jerusalem, which is in Judah. Who is there among you of all his people? his God be with him, and let him go up to Jerusalem, which is in Judah, and build the house of the Lord God of Israel, (he is the God,) which is in Jerusalem" (Ezra 1:1-3 KJV).

We are not told how King Cyrus became aware of Isaiah's prophecy concerning his life; however, it is entirely possible that Cyrus was told about the prophecy by Daniel who eventually held one of the Persian Empires' highest offices as chief of the three presidents over Persia (Dan.6:1-3). He may have been told by Ezra the priest or by Nehemiah who was another high ranking Jew in the Persian government (Neh.2:2; 8:9; 10:1). Another possibility is that Cyrus could have discovered the prophecy himself as he studied the religions of his captives. However he came to understand Isaiah's prophecy, he understood that he was the one named in it and that he had been chosen before his birth to perform a service to the God of the Jews who claimed to be the Sovereign God and Creator of all things.

Jeremiah's Prophecy

Chapter 36 of 2.Chronicles and in Ezra chapter 1 shows that the Creator God made King Cyrus aware of the prophecy in Isaiah and motivated him to allow the Jews to return to their homeland in order for the prophetic words he had spoken through Jeremiah's to be fulfilled.

The prophet Jeremiah primarily records the progression of world events throughout history and their culmination in the return of the Messiah and the establishment of the Kingdom of God on earth. The holy scriptures reveal that, within the Sovereign Father's plan for humanity, there is a specific time frame within which this plan will be completed and that there are specific times when certain events within this plan must occur. It seems that the only prophecy recorded by Jeremiah that speaks to Babylonian captivity for the House of Judah and their repatriation to their homeland from this captivity is in Jeremiah, chapters 25 and 29.

Jeremiah 25:8-13 KJV

"Therefore this says the Lord of hosts; Because you have not heard my words, Behold, I will send and take all the families of the north, says the Lord, and Nebuchadrezzar the king of Babylon, my servant, and will bring them against this land, and against the inhabitants thereof, and against all these nations round about, and will utterly destroy them, and make them an astonishment, and an hissing, and perpetual desolations" (vs.8-9).

Because of their persistent rebellion against him and their refusal to repent of their sins, God said that he would cause the House of Judah to go into Babylonian captivity.

"Moreover I will take from them the voice of mirth, and the voice of gladness, the voice of the bridegroom, and the voice of the bride, the sound of the millstones, and the light of the candle. And this whole land shall be a desolation, and an astonishment; and these nations shall serve the king of Babylon seventy years" (vs.10-11). See also Jer.29:1-10.

Verse 11 tells us that the land shall be a desolation and that the House of Judah will be in captivity 70 years. But, why 70 years of punishment? One of the reasons for this captivity was the refusal of the Jews to obey God's laws. One of these laws concerns allowing the land to rest every 7 years (i.e., the land Sabbath):

"But in the seventh year shall be a Sabbath of rest to the land, a Sabbath for the Lord: you shall neither sow your field, nor prune your vineyard. That which grows of its own accord of your harvest you shall not reap, neither gather the grapes of your vineyard undressed: for it is a year of rest to the land" (Lev.25:4-5 KJV).

"But if you do not obey Me and do not carry out all these commandments, if, instead, you reject my statutes, and if your soul abhors My ordinances so as not to carry out all my commandments, and so break my covenant, I, in turn, will do this to you: I will appoint over you a sudden terror, consumption and fever that shall waste away the eyes and cause the soul to pine away; also, you shall sow your seed uselessly, for your enemies shall eat it up. 'And I will set my face against you so that you shall be struck down before your enemies; and those who hate you shall rule over you, and you shall flee when no one is pursuing you. 'If also after these things, you do not obey me, then I will punish you seven times more for your sins. . . . 'If then, you act with hostility against me and are unwilling to obey me, I will increase the plague on you seven times according to your sins" (Lev 26:14-18, 21 NAS).

"I will scatter you among the nations and will draw out my sword and pursue you. Your land will be laid waste, and your cities will lie in ruins. Then the land will enjoy its sabbath years all the time that it lies desolate and you are in the country of your enemies; then the land will rest and enjoy its sabbaths. All the time that it lies desolate, the land will have the rest it did not have during the sabbaths you lived in it" (Lev.26:33-35 KJV).

What is revealed about the 70 years of punishment in 2.Chronicles may indicate that the Jews were breaking the law of the land rest:

"And them that had escaped from the sword carried he away to Babylon; where they were servants to him and his sons until the reign of the kingdom of Persia: To fulfil the word of the Lord by the mouth of Jeremiah, until the land had enjoyed her Sabbaths: for as long as she lay desolate she kept Sabbath, to fulfil threescore and ten years (70 years)" (2.Chron,36:20-21 KJV).

While the majority of the population of the House of Judah were in Babylonian captivity, the land rested because there were very few people left in Palestine to work the land.

"And it shall come to pass, when seventy years are accomplished, that I will punish the king of Babylon, and that nation, says the Lord, for their iniquity, and the land of the Chaldeans, and will make it perpetual desolations. And I will bring upon that land all my words which I have pronounced against it, even all that is written in this book, which Jeremiah has prophesied against all the nations" (Jer.25:12-13).

Although Jeremiah foretells the end of the Jews' captivity after 70 years, he says nothing about when the Jews will be sent back to their homeland.

Daniel, Haggai, and Zechariah

The prophets Daniel, Haggai, and Zechariah were all captives of the Babylonian and Persian empires and all three were given various insights by God into the reasons for Cyrus' proclamation concerning the Jews and each recorded certain understandings concerning the seventy- year prophecy. Daniel was given insight in the first year of King Darius' reign and Haggai and Zechariah were given insight in the second year of his reign. See Hag.1:1-15; Zech 1:1-16.

Daniel Given Understanding

"In the first year of Darius the son of Ahasuerus, of the seed of the Medes, which was made king over the realm of the Chaldeans; In the first year of his reign I Daniel understood by books the number of the years, whereof the word of the Lord came to Jeremiah the prophet, that he would accomplish seventy years [the 70 years of captivity and land rest] in the desolations of Jerusalem"(Dan.9:1-2 KJV).

Not only did God reveal details concerning the seventy-year captivity of the Jews in Babylon (foretold by the prophet Jeremiah), he also revealed the date of the Messiah's death, resurrection, and return to establish the government of God on earth through a seventy-week prophecy:

"And he informed me, and talked with me, and said, O Daniel, I am now come forth to give you skill and understanding. . . Seventy weeks are determined upon your people and upon your holy city, to finish the transgression, and to make an end of sins, and to make reconciliation for iniquity, and to bring in everlasting righteousness, and to seal up the vision and prophecy, and to anoint the most Holy" (Dan.9:22, 24 KJV).

Daniel is told that this mysterious seventy-week prophecy begins with a decree to restore and rebuild Jerusalem:

"Know therefore and understand, that from the going forth of the commandment to restore and to build Jerusalem unto the Messiah the Prince shall be seven weeks, and threescore and two weeks: the street shall be built again, and the wall, even in troublous times. And after threescore and two weeks shall Messiah be cut off, but not for himself: and the people of the prince that shall come shall destroy the city and the sanctuary; and the end thereof shall be with a flood, and unto the end of the war desolations are determined. And he shall confirm the covenant with many for one week: and in the midst of the week he shall cause the sacrifice and the oblation to cease, and for the overspreading of abominations he shall make it desolate, even until the consummation, and that determined shall be poured upon the desolate" (Dan.9:25-27 KJV).

The plan of God for the salvation of humanity was laid out before the world began. Within this plan are events and dates on which these events must occur in a specific sequence in order for the plan to be completed within its allotted time. Therefore, the timing of the prophecy concerning Cyrus was critical in order for the seventy-week prophecy, which was revealed to Daniel, to begin and end exactly on schedule.

The first part of the seventy-week prophecy, which began with a decree to restore Jerusalem and rebuild the temple, was completed with the death and resurrection of the Messiah in 30 A.D.; only the second part remains to be fulfilled at the end of this age. See our study concerning the year of Christ's death and the seventy-week prophecy for dates and more details concerning this prophecy.

The Jews Return to Palestine

After the initial proclamation by King Cyrus to allow the Jews to return to Palestine, it took many years and the departure of four large groups of Jews from the land of their captivity for them to accomplish the rebuilding of Jerusalem and the temple.

The first group was lead by Sheshbazzar, a descendant of the Davidic line, with whom came a group of heads of families who settled in the ruins of the city and began to rebuild it.

The second group was lead by Zerubbabel who was the appointed governor of Jerusalem and Joshua, a son of Josedech the high priest.

The third group was lead by Ezra who was authorized to appoint judges in the Land of Israel and apply the laws of the Torah.

The fourth group was lead by Nehemiah in 445 B.C.. They came to rebuild the broken walls of the city and its gates which had been destroyed by fire. Nehemiah created a new political reality in Judah, making it an autonomous region within the Persian Empire.

With the accomplishments of Ezra and Nehemiah, the return of tens of thousands of Jews from exile in Babylon to Palestine, the restoration of Jerusalem and the rebuilding of the temple, the prophecy concerning Cyrus and the 70 years of Jewish punishment was complete.

The fulfillment of prophecy is a major proof that the Sovereign God does exist and that he has the power and authority to control the destiny of humanity. Moreover, the fulfillment of prophecy tells us that God's plan for humanity is right on schedule.

 

http://www.bibleresearch.org/articles/a2pws.htm

What Does Advertising-Supported Revenue Model Mean?

What Does The Future of  the Ad-Supported
Revenue Model Mean to the Internet and Technology?

An advertising-supported revenue model is a business approach that emphasizes the sale of advertising as a major source of revenue. This structure is most prominent in traditional broadcast and print media, as well as online media. Media businesses generally earn revenue from advertising, customer subscriptions or a combination of the two.

Traditional Media

TV and radio shows, along with newspapers and magazines, generally serve to entertain or inform viewers or readers. TV and radio have traditionally been largely advertising-supported. While networks and TV stations do often earn revenue through subscriptions to satellite or cable television, much of their income is earned from advertisers trying to appeal to viewers. Similarly, magazines and newspapers charge subscription or purchase fees, but advertisers pay to place ads within these print media.

E-Commerce

The emergence of the Internet in the mid-1990s has affected the advertising-supported revenue model. Newspapers, for instance, have tried to adjust to increased demand for online content and limited growth in print publications. Thousands of media websites have been born online, which often offer free access to content for users. This attracts users and enables the publishes to sell banner ads and advertorial ad spaces. Traditional newspapers have offered free content as well, but many are trying to figure out how to combine ad revenue with subscription fees as of 2013.

Benefits

The benefit of an advertising-supported revenue model is that if you have an audience, you can almost always find companies that want to pay to reach it. This is especially true when you can provide specific details about the nature of your audience. When you operate with a 100 percent ad-supported model, you can more easily attract users with free content. Newspapers have long given away hundreds of copies to businesses and organizations in communities to drive up their circulation and readership, and subsequently, ad revenue potential.

Drawbacks

The major drawback of an entirely ad-supported revenue model is the inherent lack of diversification. Businesses generally prefer multiple revenue streams when possible. In a down economy, advertisers might back off their investments, which can more negatively affect a medium that has no subscription revenue. Plus, print publications, and even some websites, have high costs. Even a small subscription rate can help cover some of these costs. Local newspapers charging, say, 35 cents per issue can't use that to cover all production costs, but the fees do help offset costs and allow revenue to build.

Facebook Reports Soaring Revenue, Buoyed by Mobile Ads

On Wednesday, Mr. Zuckerberg’s social-networking company, Facebook, reported another quarter of soaring revenue. The company said sales in the fourth quarter rose 52 percent from a year ago, to $5.84 billion, while profit increased to $1.56 billion, more than doubling from $701 million a year ago. For the full year, the company reported $3.69 billion in profit on $17.93 billion in revenue, an increase of 44 percent from 2014.

The numbers far surpassed Wall Street’s fourth-quarter expectations of $1.2 billion in profit on $5.37 billion in revenue. Investors welcomed the performance by pushing up Facebook’s stock more than 12 percent in after-hours trading.

The results were largely a result of Facebook’s enormous success in selling advertising on mobile devices, a business that the company was not even in just a few years ago. Mobile ads made up 80 percent of the company’s total ad business in the fourth quarter, compared with 23 percent in the same quarter of 2012.

“We have a Super Bowl on mobile in the U.S. every single day,” Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook, said in an interview.

The results offer a bright spot in a tumultuous climate for many American technology stocks. Shares of Twitter, Facebook’s most visible social networking competitor in the United States, have tumbled more than 55 percent during the last year. Yelp, the local-review service, is down about 60 percent. LinkedIn, the professional social networking service, is off more than 15 percent.

Facebook is a much larger company than many of its peers, yet it is able to keep its growth rate high. The company has notched double-digit jumps in ad revenue and in the expansion of its user base. Facebook now has 1.59 billion monthly visitors, up 14 percent from a year ago. About 1.44 billion of those people visit the site on a mobile device; 1.04 billion visit Facebook every day.

That growth engine has given Facebook lots of room to play in different areas — like virtual reality, messaging and even building drones capable of delivering Internet service to far-flung places around the world — that seem to have little to do with Facebook’s core business of advertising.

Facebook is spending billions of dollars developing those projects, and Mr. Zuckerberg has repeatedly said the company has no plans to make money on them in the near term. In an earnings call with investors, David Wehner, Facebook’s chief financial officer, said the company projected that expenses would increase roughly 30 to 40 percent over the course of 2016 compared with last year.

One example of the spending is on Oculus, Facebook’s $2 billion bet on bringing virtual reality to the mainstream. The unit will begin selling its first headsets to consumers in March. Facebook has said it plans to sell the hardware, called the Rift, at a loss to help the technology catch on with a large audience.

“These are long-term bets, but we don’t think they’re particularly large bets relative to the size of Facebook,” said Ben Schachter, an Internet analyst at Macquarie Securities. “They’ve gone out of their way to say they’re not Google and going after health care, for instance.”

Other analysts said they also saw potential for profit in the hundreds of millions of people who regularly use Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp, a messaging service also owned by Facebook.

They are also bullish on the potential for Instagram, the photo-sharing service that has more than 400 million regular monthly users, to become a significant source of revenue in the future. The company does not disclose what portion of revenue Instagram accounts for in Facebook’s overall sales. Ms. Sandberg said 98 of the top 100 advertisers on Facebook also advertised on Instagram in the last quarter.

As for Mr. Zuckerberg, he spent a portion of the investor call on Wednesday talking about his new role as a father to his daughter, Max.

“With a new addition to my family, I’ve been reflecting a lot on the legacy we want to pass on to the next generation,” he said, adding that he wanted Facebook to “continue to focus on solving the fundamental challenges facing the world, and bringing the world closer together.”

If you believe that my message is worth spreading, please use the share buttons if they show at the top of the page.

Stephen Hodgkiss
Chief Engineer at MarketHive

markethive.com


Entrepreneurial Social Networks

Top 5 Social Networks Entrepreneur Strategy

There are hundreds of social networks out there. You can’t be everywhere and we all need to focus our efforts and time on the most effective social networking sites. Here are the social networks I would recommend most for entrepreneurs.

Looking for a job? Consider creating your own. There are a number of social resources to help you connect with other entrepreneurs and get your business ideas off the ground.

Here are the top 10 social networks for entrepreneurs. Each helps entrepreneurs succeed by providing them with the guidance, tools and resources they need to setup their company and gain exposure.

Nothing compares with the brute force horsepower Inbound Marketing engine that comes free with Markethive, but we need to build alliances among our peers and this list is the top 10 of other Entrepreneurial social nets we recommend you frequent as well.

1. Markethive

I am putting Markethive as number one for many reasons, including a serious case of bias. I built it, aside from that. Markethive is a traditional easily navigated and profile oriented network similar to Facebook, oriented like LinkedIn but unique in that it's engine is a multimillion dollar Inbound Marketing platform. As entrepreneurs, we invest (spend) millions on autoresponder systems, capture page systems, blogging platforms, broadcasting technologies, known as Inbound Marketing today. Markethive's founder is the same man the developed Veretekk and invented Automated Marketing, auto responders, capture pages basically what has become today known as Inbound Marketing. There is no other Inbound Marketing solution on the Internet that comes close, has the level of integration found on the Internet at any price and the other systems cost upwards of $10,000 per month. Markethive's Inbound Marketing platform is free included and built into the social network.

2.  StartupNation

Most social networks neglect the content aspect that makes StartupNation so useful.  With articles, forums, blogs, on-demand seminars, and podcasts, entrepreneurs will be better prepared for their ventures and have the resources required to make better business decisions. 

There are a wide range of topics being discussed on StartupNation right now, including business planning, marketing and web-based business.  The site also offers a series of competitions, such as a dorm-based 20 contest and an elevator pitch competition. If you're an entrepreneur or hope to become one, this site is definitely one you can’t miss out on.

3.  LinkedIn

It’s difficult to leave LinkedIn off of any social networking list because it’s so useful for anyone who's either searching for a job, is trying to network with like-minded individuals, or building a company.  LinkedIn offers many resources for entrepreneurs, such as groups, including the very popular “On Startups” group that has over 54,000 members. 

Entrepreneurs on LinkedIn should brand themselves properly so they can attract the right kind of business opportunities, and perform searches to find service providers or partners.  As an entrepreneur, you should also be looking to participate in LinkedIn Answers, events and applications to spruce up your profile and become a valuable member to your community.

4.  Perfect Business

If you want to meet thousands of serious entrepreneurs, experts and investors from a variety of industries, then Perfect Business might be the perfect social network for you.  The type of people you’ll find are potential business partners, potential clients and advisers. Additionally, the site has leading business partners like Entrepreneur and Virgin Money.

From business networking to a video center where you can learn from successful entrepreneurs, a business plan builder and even an investor center, you’ll have most of the resources you need to create or regenerate your business. There is a free basic membership and a gold membership that costs $29.99 per month.

5.   The Funded

The Funded is an online community of entrepreneurs who research, rate and review funding sources.  Entrepreneurs can view and share terms sheets to assist each other in finding good investors, as well as discuss the inner workings of operating a business.  General benefits of this site include viewing facts, reviews and commentary on funding resources, and accessing RSS feeds of the most recent public comments by members. 

By joining the site, you have access to detailed fund profiles with specialty, reference investments, and investment criteria, in addition to accessing partner vCards that have full contact information of all partners at venture funds.  In order to get any value out of this social network, you pretty much have to become a member.

If you believe that my message is worth spreading, please use the share buttons if they show at the top of the page.

Stephen Hodgkiss
Chief Engineer at MarketHive

markethive.com


What History Teaches Us About Great Speculations

Right now, we are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane that we entered in 2007, and we’re going into its trailing edge. It’s going to be much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.

financial crisis

In a desperate attempt to stave off a day of financial reckoning during the 2008 financial crisis, global central banks began printing trillions of new currency units. The printing continues to this day. And it’s not just the Federal Reserve that’s doing it: it’s just the leader of the pack. The U.S., Japan, Europe, China…all major central banks are participating in the biggest increase in global monetary units in history.

These reckless policies have produced not just billions, but trillions in malinvestment that will inevitably be liquidated. This will lead us to an economic disaster that will in many ways dwarf the Great Depression of 1929–1946. Paper currencies will fall apart, as they have many times throughout history.

This isn’t some vague prediction about the future. It’s happening right now. The Canadian dollar has lost 26% of its value since 2013. The Australian dollar has lost 29% of its value during the same time. The Japanese yen and the euro have crashed in value. And the U.S. dollar is currently just the healthiest horse on its way to the glue factory.

These moves show that we’re in the early stages of a currency crisis. But if you make the right moves, you could actually make windfall gains instead of suffering losses. Here’s how to do it…

The huge winner during this crisis will be the only currency that has real value: gold.

Gold has been used as money for thousands of years because it has a unique combination of qualities. Very briefly, it’s durable, easily divisible, convenient to carry, consistent around the world, and has value in and of itself. Just as important, governments can’t create gold out of thin air. It’s the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously someone else’s liability.

When people wake up and realize that most banks and governments are bankrupt, they’ll flock to gold…just as they’ve done for centuries. Gold will rise multiples of its current value. I expect a 200% rise from current levels, at the minimum. There are many reasons, which we don’t have room to cover here, why gold could see a 400% or 500% gain.

This should produce a corresponding bull market in gold stocks…perhaps of a magnitude we’ve never seen. A true mania for gold stocks could develop over the coming years. This could make anyone who buys gold stocks at their current depressed levels very rich.

What History Teaches Us About Great Speculations

Many of the best speculations have a political element to them.

Governments are constantly creating distortions in the market, causing misallocations of capital. Whenever possible, the speculator tries to find out what these distortions are, because their consequences are predictable.

They result in trends you can bet on. Because you can almost always count on the government to do the wrong thing, you can almost always safely bet against them. It’s as if the government were guaranteeing your success.

The classic example, not just coincidentally, concerns gold.

The U.S. government suppressed its price for decades while creating huge numbers of dollars before it exploded upward in 1971. Speculators who understood some basic economics positioned themselves accordingly. Over the next nine years, gold climbed more than 2,000% and many gold stocks climbed by more than 5,000%.

Governments are constantly manipulating and distorting the monetary situation. Gold in particular,
 as the market’s alternative to government money, is always affected by that. So gold stocks are really a way to short government—or go long on government stupidity, as it were.

The bad news is that governments act chaotically, spastically.

The beast jerks to the tugs on its strings held by various puppeteers. But while it’s often hard to predict price movements in the short-term, the long-term is a near certainty. You can bet confidently on the end results of chronic government monetary stupidity.

Mining stocks are extremely volatile for that very same reason. That’s good news, however, because volatility makes it possible, from time to time, to get not just doubles or triples but 10-baggers, 20-baggers, and even 100-to-1 shots.

When gold starts moving higher, it’s going to direct a lot of attention towards gold stocks. When people get gold fever, they are not just driven by greed, they’re usually driven by fear as well, so you get both of the most powerful market motivators working for you at once. It’s a rare class of securities that can benefit from fear and greed at once.

Remember that the Fed‘s pumping-up of the money supply ignited a huge bubble in tech stocks in the late 90’s, and then an even more massive global bubble in real estate that burst in 2008. But they’re still creating tons of dollars.

This will inevitably ignite other asset bubbles. Where? I can’t say for certain, but I say the odds are extremely high that as gold goes up, a lot of this funny money is going to be directed into these gold stocks, which are not just a microcap area of the market but a nanocap area of the market. The combined market capitalization of the 10 biggest U.S.-listed gold stocks is less than 29% of the size of Facebook.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When the public gets the bit in its teeth and wants to buy gold stocks, it’s going to be like trying to siphon the contents of the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.

Gold stocks, as a class, are going to be explosive. Now, you’ve got to remember that most of them are junk. Most will never, ever find an economical deposit. But it’s hopes and dreams that drive them, not reality, and even those without merit can still go up 10, 20, or 30 times your entry price.

And companies that actually have the goods can go much higher than that.

You buy gold, the metal, because you’re prudent. It’s for safety, liquidity, insurance. The gold stocks, even though they explore for or mine gold, are at the polar opposite of the investment spectrum; you buy them for their extreme volatility, and the chance they offer for spectacular gains. It’s rather paradoxical, actually.

Why Gold Stocks Are an Ideal “Asymmetric Bet”

Because these stocks have the potential to go 10, 50, or even 100 times your entry price, they offer something called “asymmetry.”

You probably learned about symmetry in grade school. It’s when the parts of something have equal form and size. For example, cut a square in half and the two parts are symmetrical.

Symmetry is attractive in some forms. The more symmetrical someone’s face is, the more physically attractive they are considered to be. Symmetry is often attractive in architecture.

But when it comes to investing and speculating in the financial markets, the expert financial operator eschews symmetry. Symmetry is for suckers.

The expert financial operator hunts for extreme asymmetry.

An asymmetric bet is one where the potential upside of a position greatly exceeds its potential downside. If you risk $1 for the chance of making $20, you’re making an asymmetric bet.

Amateur investors too often risk 100% of their money in the pursuit of a 100% return. These are horrible odds that the financially and statistically illiterate flock towards…the kind you find in casinos and most sports betting. It’s one of the key reasons most people struggle in the market.

I’ve always been more attracted to asymmetric bets…where I stand a good chance of making 10, 50, even 100 times the amount I’m risking. I’m not interested in even bets. I’m only taking the field if my potential upside is much, much greater than my potential downside.

Because of the extreme asymmetry gold stocks offer—because of their extreme upside potential—you don’t have to take a big position in them to make a huge impact on your net worth. A modest investment of $25,000 right now could turn into $500,000 in five years. It has happened before and it will happen again.

Right now gold stocks are near a historic low. I’m buying them aggressively. At this point, it’s possible that the shares of a quality exploration company or a quality development company (i.e., one that has found a deposit and is advancing it toward production) could still go down 10, 20, 30, or even 50 percent. But there’s an excellent chance that the same stock will go up by 10, 50, or even 100 times.

I hate to use such hard-to-believe numbers, but that is the way this market works.

When the coming resource bubble is ignited, the odds are excellent we’ll be laughing all the way to the bank in a few years.

No one, including me, knows that the Mania Phase is just around the corner. But I’ve operated in this market for over 40 years. This is a very reasonable time to be buying these stocks. And it’s absolutely a good time to start educating yourself about them.

There’s an excellent chance a truly massive bubble is going to be ignited in this area. If so, the returns are going to be historic.

If you believe that my message is worth spreading, please use the share buttons if they show at the top of the page.

Stephen Hodgkiss
Chief Engineer at MarketHive

markethive.com


We choose the nominee, not the voters: Senior GOP official

We choose the nominee, not the voters: Senior GOP official

Political parties, not voters, choose their presidential nominees, a Republican convention rules member told CNBC, a day after GOP front-runner Donald Trump rolled up more big primary victories.

"The media has created the perception that the voters choose the nomination. That's the conflict here," Curly Haugland, an unbound GOP delegate from North Dakota, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday. He even questioned why primaries and caucuses are held.

Haugland is one of 112 Republican delegates who are not required to cast their support for any one candidate because their states and territories don't hold primaries or caucuses.

Even with Trump's huge projected delegate haul in four state primaries Tuesday, the odds are increasing the billionaire businessman may not ultimately get the 1,237 delegates needed to claim the GOP nomination before the convention.

This could lead to a brokered convention, in which unbound delegates, like Haugland, could play a significant swing role on the first ballot to choose a nominee.

Most delegates bound by their state's primary or caucus results are only committed on the first ballot. If subsequent ballots are needed, virtually all of the delegates can vote any way they want, said Gary Emineth, another unbound delegate from North Dakota.

"It could introduce Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, or it could be the other candidates that have already been in the race and are now out of the race [such as] Mike Huckabee [or] Rick Santorum. All those people could eventually become candidates on the floor," Emineth said.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who decided not to run for the White House this year, said in a CNBC interview Tuesday he won't categorically rule out accepting the GOP nomination if a deadlocked convention were to turn to him. But on Wednesday, a Ryan spokeswoman said the speaker would not accept a Republican nomination for president at a divided convention.

 

Democrats experienced the last true brokered presidential convention to go beyond the first ballot in 1952. Republicans came close at their 1976 convention.

"The rules haven't kept up," Haugland said. "The rules are still designed to have a political party choose its nominee at a convention. That's just the way it is. I can't help it. Don't hate me because I love the rules."

Haugland said he sent a letter to each campaign alerting them to a rule change he's proposing, which would allow any candidate who earns at least one delegate during the nominating process to submit his or her name to be nominated at this summer's convention.

If the GOP race continues at the same pace, Trump would likely have a plurality of delegates. So far, he's more than halfway to the 1,237 magic number.

Trump split Tuesday's winner-take-all primaries in Florida and Ohio.

The real estate mogul dominated in Florida over Sen. Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race after losing his home state.

But Trump lost Ohio to the state's governor, John Kasich. Trump also won Illinois and North Carolina. He held a slim lead over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in Missouri early Wednesday.

Emineth, also a former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party, told "Squawk Box" in the same interview that he's concerned about party officials pulling "some shenanigan."

"You have groups of people who are going to try to take over the rules committee," he warned. "[That] could totally change everything, and mess things up with the delegates. And people across the country will be very frustrated."

"It's important that the Republican National Committee has transparency on what they're doing [on the rules] going into the convention and what happens in the convention," he continued. That's because of "all the votes that have been cast in caucuses and primaries. Don't disenfranchise those voters. Because at the end of the day, our goal is to beat Hillary Clinton or whoever their [Democratic] nominee is in November."

Emineth said he's worried that frustration would discourage Americans in the general election from voting Republican.

CNBC's Lori Ann LaRocco contributed to this report.

Donald Trump just hit a critical threshold

Donald Trump just hit a critical threshold for the GOP nomination — one that his opponents might not achieve


March 12, 2016 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event
at the Arvest Bank Theatre at the Midland in Kansas City, Mo. Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post

The Northern Marianas are a collection of 15 islands in the Pacific Ocean, located at about the focal point of the Pacific Rim. It's a U.S. territory, 179 square miles of land — an area smaller than New York City — that happens to jut out above the surface of the water. And on Tuesday morning, before you even woke up, it made Donald Trump the first man to qualify for the Republican presidential nomination.

See, in the Northern Marianas, Tuesday began 14 hours before it began on the East Coast. So its Super Threesday caucus was done overnight, and Trump won all nine delegates. In doing so, the Northern Marianas became the eighth state or territory in which Trump won a majority of the delegates. (The others: South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Hawaii and Mississippi.) And according to the rules of the Republican convention, a candidate must “demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.” No eight states, no nomination.

That's the fabled Rule 40, which governs how the nomination process works, down to the length of time allotted candidates who wish to speak about their nominations. The eight-state thing is in Section B of the rule, and it is a pretty high bar to meet. (The party’s rules count territories as states under Rule 1.) After all, it's not that Trump hasn't won at least eight states; he has. But only in eight (including the Marianas) does he have a majority of delegates. In the others he has won — New Hampshire, Nevada, Arkansas, Vermont, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana and Michigan — he has a plurality of delegates. Not good enough.

Notice that we’ve taken 16 states and territories out of play already. There are several more that other candidates have won with a majority of the delegates — Texas (for Ted Cruz), Kansas (Cruz), Maine (Cruz), Puerto Rico (for Marco Rubio), Idaho (Cruz) and D.C. (Rubio) — and more still that other candidates won, but didn't capture most of the delegates. Those are Iowa, Alaska and Oklahoma for Cruz and Minnesota for Rubio. Cruz needs four more and Rubio six more. (Oh and John Kasich, eight more.) And not many states are left.

In theory, then, Trump could be the only candidate to hit the bar before the July convention.

Of course, once the convention arrives, that doesn’t really matter at all.

As former Republican National Committee counsel Ben Ginsberg noted during an appearance on MSNBC last week, Rule 40 is not a hard-and-fast rule for the convention. The convention will have a Rules Committee in which 112 representatives will battle over the final guidelines for eligibility to receive the nomination. Rule 40’s eight-state boundary could become 25 states or two states. In 2012, in fact, the Rules Committee bumped it up from five to eight, which is why that’s where it stands right now. (The rules document notes that it dates from the 2012 convention, with a few updates by the party.)


Aerial view of Saipan Island in the Northern Marianas. (Paul Chesley)

Think of it like an NFL game. As the clock runs out on the voting, we think we know the winner. But before a winner is announced, the referees get to discuss how the rules will be applied. Maybe they decide that what constitutes winning is “most yardage gained by passing” — but that one of the team’s quarterbacks is ineligible for consideration. It’s a ridiculous example, but it’s not entirely inaccurate: The Rules Committee could make the nomination rules into nearly anything it wishes.

That’s not terribly likely, of course, both because there’s value in maintaining the integrity of the process for candidates and because any perception that the scales are being tipped away from Donald Trump probably would result in a very angry group of Trump supporters. But the rules can and probably will change to some degree.

None of this is meant as a slight on the importance of the Northern Marianas, of course. But, then, they’re all asleep right now anyway.

 

China Warns, Japan Fears And George Soros Freaks Out As Donald Trump Continues End Times Rise To The Top


China Warns, Japan Fears And George Soros Freaks Out As Donald Trump Continues End Times Rise To The Top

On his very first day in office, president Donald Trump will send shockwaves around the world, not by doing anything, but just by being. From a prophecy perspective, this will immediately reset the table with every nation hostile to us, and with every nation that has gotten used to pushing around a second-rate America under the Obama reign of terror. For the first time since the reestablishment of Israel in 1948, there will exist the possibility that literally anything can happen. The entire global community is starting to realize that we are on the brink of huge, huge change.

In the last two weeks, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has won more delegates in primaries and caucuses, even while his opponents have launched new attacks and questions have been raised about his supporters.

“And he changeth the times and the seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding:” Daniel 2:21 (KJV)

My friends, we are indeed living in the end times, and a Donald Trump presidency will be just the ticket. I believe with all my heart that God is getting ready to shake the world and I further believe that He is going to use Donald J. Trump as president to bring it about. Never before, either in my lifetime or in recorded American history, have we witnessed such a strong reaction to a candidate for president of the United States. Never before have so many world leaders chimed in to give an opinion on our election process. Shoot, even NWO puppet master George Soros is running scared and the millions to ‘stop Trump’ have already begun to flow.

Fellow Christians will ask me “how can you vote for Trump?” And I say back to them “are you KIDDING me? If you know and believe Bible prophecy, how could you not vote for Trump?”

On his very first day in office, president Donald Trump will send shockwaves around the world, not by doing anything, but just by being there. From a prophecy perspective, this will immediately reset the table with every nation hostile to us, and with every nation that has gotten used to pushing around a second-rate America under the Obama reign of terror. For the first time since the reestablishment of Israel in 1948, there will exist the possibility that literally anything can happen. The entire global community is starting to realize that we are on the brink of huge, huge change.

Did you read the headlines just today? Take a look:

  • Donald Trump’s rise sparks alarm in Japan: As polls open for US primaries in Ohio and Florida, the political elite in Tokyo is starting to confront a disconcerting idea: that their indispensable US ally could actually elect Donald Trump as president. The controversial businessman, now favorite for the Republican nomination, hits Japan regularly in his stump speeches for supposedly unfair trade practices and freeriding on US military protection. “To start with they just thought ‘he’s funny’,” said Masatoshi Honda, a professor of politics at Kinjo University. “But recently they’re starting to worry — what happens if Trump wins?” source
  • Trump opens Pandora’s box in US: Donald Trump, front-runner to be the GOP’s candidate for the upcoming US presidential election, encountered a major protest at his campaign event in Chicago on Friday evening. Over a thousand people, both his supporters and opponents engaged in a physical confrontation, which was quelled by police who arrested a number of people
  • Soros, Alarmed by Trump, Pours Money into 2016 Race: George Soros has expressed alarm over the past few months at the candidacy of Donald Trump. In a statement last week about a new group he’s funding to increase voting by Latinos and immigrants in the election, he again mentioned the candidate by name. “The intense anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric that has been fueled by the Republican primary is deeply offensive,” Soros said in the statement. “There should be consequences for the outrageous statements and proposals that we’ve regularly heard from Trump.”

  • Trump breaks 50% in national support for the first time: In the last two weeks, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has won more delegates in primaries and caucuses, even while his opponents have launched new attacks and questions have been raised about his supporters.  The week’s Economist/YouGov Poll finds Trump still at the top of GOP voters’ preference with a wider lead, while Florida Senator Marco Rubio seems most damaged by the two weeks of attacks and counter-attacks. This is the first time Trump has garnered the support of a majority of Republican primary voters nationwide. YouGov’s February 24-27 survey marked his previous high, at 44% support

As much as I dislike the failed Marxist policies of the Muslim-raised Barack Hussein Obama, I have always said on this website that I believe he became president so God could judge our nation. And He certainly has done that. Taxpayer funding for baby murder, forcing same-sex marriage on America, decimating the power of our military, and the list goes on and on. Now that the United States has been judged, I believe God is going to begin the process of shaking the entire world in preparation of the time of Jacob’s trouble. And America will be the ‘big stick’ He is going to use, with Trump as president.

These are the days of prophecy, there is no hiding place, nowhere to run to. Every night when I look up into the the eastern sky, I see in my mind’s eye the clouds parting, a shofar blaring, and a thunderous “come up hither!” reverberating across the ocean. If the time of Jacob’s trouble really is as close as it looks like it is, then that means that the Pretribulation Rapture, which naturally must come first, is closer still.

So Christian, when you vote, vote for the candidate that seems most likely to be used of God to advance the prophecy timeline. I want to see the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob shake this world to its very core, and I want a front row seat when it happens. You students of Bible prophecy will take note that America does not appear anywhere among the named nations of the world. There is no “revival” coming, there is no “kingdom to claim for Jesus” as one of the candidates believe.

“I will greatly rejoice in the LORD, my soul shall be joyful in my God; for he hath clothed me with the garments of salvation, he hath covered me with the robe of righteousness, as a bridegroom decketh himself with ornaments, and as a bride adorneth herself with her jewels.” Isaiah 61:10 (KJV)

It is my contention that the God of the Holy Bible is getting ready to set the entire global community on its ear. Don’t waste your time with politics! Start getting busy going out into the streets, handing out gospel tracts, and preaching the good news of salvation in Jesus Christ.

“Looking for that blessed hope, and the glorious appearing of the great God and our Saviour Jesus Christ;” Titus 2:13 (KJV)

Are YOU ready for what comes next?

originating article is here:
NOW THE END BEGINS


 

Markethive Website Rotator

Markethive provides many tools for the Entrepreneur that works on-line; one of these is our very own URL Rotator. This can be found under the Campaigns Menu.

free url rotator

The Website Rotator tool allows you to configure a unique URL that will then rotate and display a list of other websites you define. You can use it to transfer traffic from one of your sites to several others. Or if you work with a team of people, the entire group can promote a single URL which will then automatically distribute the traffic to each member's individual website.

You can add an unlimited number of websites to each rotator. There are 2 different rotation types. Circular will simply rotate through each website, one by one. Shared Ratio allows you to weight certain URLs so they receive a certain number of visits before the rotation continues.

For those of you that have been using this tool here already, please take note of the new website address for our rotator. You will need to review them. Previously, it had been using the Markethive domain itself, which is never a good idea.

If you believe that my message is worth spreading, please use the share buttons if they show at the top of the page.

Stephen Hodgkiss
Chief Engineer at MarketHive

markethive.com


Losing Ohio Improves Trump’s Chances to Win the Nomination

Keeping John Kasich in the race divides the anti-Trump vote.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop at the Savannah Center, Sunday,
March 13, 2016, in West Chester, Ohio.
 

Two months ago, based on a computer model I developed of the Republican delegate race, I wrote in The American Prospect that the GOP’s nomination rules tilted the playing field to Donald Trump’s advantage. For Trump’s opponents, the time window for counteracting many of those advantages and winning a first-ballot nomination has passed. Now the campaign enters a new phase, as Trump’s rivals try to deny him a majority of pledged delegates going into the convention. Simulating the remaining contests based on current polling data, my model picks up an unexpected wrinkle: Trump’s strongest position comes if he loses the primary in Ohio on Tuesday.

Tomorrow marks the start of an onslaught of winner-take-all elections, which will continue for the rest of the primary season. A winner-take-all rule rewards the first-place finisher even without a majority, and therefore gives the biggest advantage when the field is divided. Two of the first winner-take-all elections take place in Florida and Ohio, the home states of Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich. Winning their home state would provide each of them not only with delegates, but also with the credibility they need for raising money and obtaining other support to continue as candidates. But if they survive, they will continue to divide the anti-Trump vote with Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

In 17 out of the remaining 29 state and territorial GOP contests, the rules will give all or nearly all of the delegates to the first-place finisher. My computer simulation for these races includes rules not only for statewide but also for congressional district-level delegates, which add complexity but make only a small difference. South Carolina has already provided an example of a state with both statewide and district-level rules. Trump still got all 50 of South Carolina’s delegates.

I estimated win probabilities for Trump using recent polling data where it was available. Where polls were not available, I assumed that individual states varied around the national median with a standard deviation of 16 percentage points, comparable to the 2012 primary season. I assumed that districts varied around the state average with a standard deviation of five percentage points, a typical amount for most states. I then converted these margins to win probabilities and delegates, and combined all 29 races using methods that I originally developed in 2004 to analyze the Electoral College.

We can test the effect of a divided field by simulating the outcome of having all the primaries as if they were held today and included all four of the remaining candidates: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich.

The above graph represents a distribution of all possible outcomes. Where polls are available, Trump leads in eight of the nine states that vote between now and mid-April. I estimate that under these conditions, he should lose between two and four of the winner-take-all races and win a median of 804 newly awarded delegates. Combined with his existing 465 delegates, Trump’s total would be 1,269, more than the 1,237 needed to get a majority on the first ballot at the convention. The total might be smaller because of chance variation, as well as Cruz’s tendency to outperform his polls. So there is a chance Trump would need to pick up a handful of additional delegates, for example from Ben Carson, who has endorsed him. In this way, Trump could easily get the nomination with a majority of delegates, despite having the support of only 39 percent of Republican voters, as measured by national surveys. Indeed, my simulation indicates even if his support dropped across the board by 5 percentage points, he would still have an even-odds chance of getting 1,237 delegates. This victory builds on the 42 percent of delegates that he has obtained so far, based on getting 34 percent of the vote.

Most of the remaining primaries, however, do not happen tomorrow. This gives time for the consequences of the March 15 primaries to unfold, changing the picture substantially.

In Florida, Rubio lags Trump by a median of 14.5 percentage points. Assuming Rubio loses and leaves the field, more of his supporters should go to Cruz than to Trump. In exit polls for Michigan and Mississippi, Rubio voters preferred Cruz over Trump by a ratio of four to one, and an ABC-Langer national sample of Republican and Republican-leaning independents got a similar split. So Trump would gain Florida’s 99 delegates, but his future gains would probably be reduced thanks to Rubio’s absence from the race.

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A preview of the effects of a Rubio withdrawal can be seen in Ohio. In four Ohio polls spanning March 2 to 8, Trump leads Kasich by a median of six percentage points. Over the weekend, however, Rubio urged his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich, a strategic move that fulfills Mitt Romney’s recommendation to fight Trump by consolidating around the strongest candidate on a state-by-state basis. Rubio’s median support in Ohio is seven percentage points, and his supporters prefer Kasich or Cruz over Trump by a ratio of 12 to 1. So Kasich's position in Ohio may be quite competitive.

To assess the overall consequence of Rubio’s withdrawal, I redid the simulations after giving Ohio to Kasich and reassigning four-fifths of Rubio’s support in later states to Kasich and Cruz equally, with the remainder going to Trump. Under these assumptions, I calculate that Trump would gain a median of 724 delegates, to end up with 1,189 delegates in all.

Depending on exactly where Trump falls in the range of possibilities, to reach a majority he might have to gather additional support from a pool of more than 100 uncommitted and minor-candidate delegates. As more elections occur and better polling data becomes available, it will become clearer how many, if any, of these unpledged delegates he will need.

The aforementioned scenario, in which Rubio drops out and Kasich stays in, may be Trump’s best option. Perhaps counterintuitively, it is worse for Trump to win Ohio since that would likely cause Kasich to withdraw. In this scenario, Trump would be left in a one-on-one matchup with Cruz. National surveys from ABC/Langer and NBC/Wall Street Journal show Cruz leading Trump by 13 and 17 percentage points. A two-candidate race might not only leave Trump far short of a majority of delegates but also open up the possibility of Cruz ending up with the most delegates. 

To emulate the effect seen in those two surveys, I reassigned Rubio and Kasich's support to Cruz and Trump in a four-to-one ratio. This leads to the following distribution of outcomes.

In this scenario, Trump picks up only 548 new delegates, for a total of 1,013— barely 40 percent of delegates, far short of the necessary number for nomination. Failure to get a majority on the first ballot would then generate the open convention that has been the subject of so much speculation.

Even in this two-candidate scenario, Trump still has a shot at the nomination. Despite his record of racist, sexist, and inflammatory statements, culminating in the proto-fascism and violence of his rallies, many Republicans regard him as the lesser of available evils. Some Republican insiders see the ascendancy of Cruz as more damaging to their party in the long run.

We are therefore left with an odd situation. Many Republicans who oppose Trump and Cruz are desperately hoping for Kasich to win Ohio, an outcome that Kasich himself certainly wants so that he can stay in the race. But Trump also should hope Kasich wins Ohio, since a decision by Kasich to keep fighting keeps the field divided, offering Trump himself the best chance of getting a majority of delegates and ultimately winning the nomination. The only candidate who should not want Kasich to win Ohio is Ted Cruz.

 

From The American Prospect